After almost two years of an unprecedented (just one of many terms I’m tired of) pandemic, quarantine, long-awaited vaccines that some people avoid because they don’t believe the science or believe some strange conspiracy theory, what can possibly be on the horizon for 2022? I have no crystal ball, I’m not an epidemiologist or even a healthcare worker. Nor am I an economist. But I do have 40+ years of work experience in both a large corporate environment and higher education on top of two business degrees. Add to that a propensity for being quite observant, good at connecting dots and noticing things others may never notice.
With those things in mind, here are my observations wrapping up 2021 and looking ahead to 2022. As I have observed before, I like to do things in threes, So we will look at trends I think will continue, things I think will fade away, and then will wrap up with “who knows?” To be completely honest, after the last two years, everything should probably go in that last category. Earlier this week while meeting with an acquaintance, I gave him some free advice and made sure he knew that it was worth exactly what he was paying for it—zilch, nada, zero! Same goes here, although this info isn’t exactly advice. More a compendium of info that has been rolling around in my head after reading, listening, and synthesizing what I know, what I think I know and what I wish we knew.
So here goes—
WHAT WILL CONTINUE:
COVID in its various forms will be with us for the long haul. Some things I have read say it may become less virulent, and we may be able to protect ourselves with an annual booster. Perhaps it can be combined with our annual flu shot. For those who opt out, for whatever reason, this resistance is another thing that will continue. The misinformation (my view) that will continue to drive this challenge won’t go away any time soon either. Illness and death, unfortunately, along with overburdened hospitals and their staffs will continue. How long I don’t want to guess.
The outgrowth of this will be healthcare workers experiencing burnout, leaving the profession, and perhaps not being replaced by new hires who are turned away from these professions by the challenges of the past two years. Further exacerbating the issue in our hospitals will be putting off non-emergency care, those of us afraid to seek care when we need it, and delaying the inevitable. In Indiana, our governor has again called on military troops to supplement overburdened staff in hospitals around the state. Typically called out in times of emergency like floods or tornadoes, this is something I have not seen before.
On a broader employment basis, the need for talent to fill the many vacant positions will continue into the foreseeable future. The Great Resignation, now called the Great Reset by some, is not abating. Many of those leaving their jobs haven’t found a replacement position yet, but as savings dry up and those federal dollars come to an end, they MAY be encouraged to find something else. I even saw a short blurb about people in central Indiana now going back to the same jobs they left voluntarily earlier in the pandemic. No details, but I may be curious enough to do a bit of research. Others are leaving for greener (literally) pastures as some employers are coming to realize that higher wages, better benefits and so on are required to both retain and attract the best talent.
On the real estate front, the changes in both the residential and commercial markets will continue for some time. On the commercial side, few employers will be going all-in on a return to office for all employees any time soon unless necessary for the type of work they do. Hybrid and remote work will continue, perhaps on a permanent basis for some employers and employee groups. This flexibility ranks highly in terms of what people look for when searching for positions. In terms of residential, the increasingly high cost of lumber and other building supplies will continue to drive up the cost of new home construction as well as moderate and major renovations of existing homes. Factor in the challenge of finding skilled labor (have you tried to get work done at your house lately?) and you can just about forget moving. Even if you sell in a sellers’ market, where will you buy and what can you afford?
Closely tied to commercial real estate is its subset, retail. The pandemic and the shutdown in the early days and months forged some quick winners and losers. For example, Zoom and Instacart had niche markets; now they are household names. Amazon was already a household name, but ecommerce and other delivery services like GrubHub and DoorDash gained greater prominence. The hybrid version, order online and pickup in store or curbside, grew as consumers began to get out more. Different people will continue to have different preferences, and the companies that get ahead of those preferences will prevail. Brick-and-mortar will survive to the extent that it provides a unique experience combined with ecommerce, social media, and all the other consumer preferences. The days of “this is what we have, take it or leave it” are long gone.
Inflation, no longer considered transitory (really just a fancy word for temporary) by the people setting policy, will be around long enough to present a challenge. Continued supply chain challenges will exacerbate this issue, and it won’t be just TP in short supply. Anecdotally, in my circle it has been cream cheese, of all things, that some have been unable to locate. Not me, I stocked up for my Christmas recipe needs and for my morning bagel.
FOR NEXT TIME:
This turned into a longer list of observations than I expected. The remaining two categories—WHAT WILL FADE AWAY and WHO KNOWS? will have to wait for another day. Until then, have a safe, healthy and Happy Holiday Season. Take time to celebrate with those you love. Refresh and come back ready for a new 2022!
Barb's Boomer Blog 