Let’s review. Last time I said I would wrap up 2021 with my views on what I thought would continue post-pandemic, what would come to an end and what I put in the category of “who knows?” all with the caveat of my lack of technical expertise in economics, healthcare and epidemiology. However, with 40+ years in business and higher education and a propensity for keen observation, I do have the ability to find connections that others might miss. So for what it’s worth, here goes.
A brief rundown of the “what will continue” category from last time included:
- COVID, perhaps not as virulent, and those who resist the ways to fight it
- Shortage/burnout of healthcare workers
- Talent shortages in many sectors, but opportunities for those who seek them out
- Real estate challenges in both commercial and residential markets
- Retail, both brick-and-mortar and ecommerce, and supply chain challenges (retail and wholesale)
- Inflation, no longer considered transitory by those in policy making roles
WHAT WILL CHANGE OR FADE AWAY:
New ways to fight COVID, perhaps both treatments and vaccinations, will be developed as will changes in policy and guidelines for those who contract and are exposed to the disease. Already the CDC has indicated that there may be a reduction in the 10-day isolation period for some down to 5 days. Whether that will get people back to work faster or just cause greater spread remains to be seen.
Already we are seeing more travel through the 2021 holiday season than we saw in 2020. If the increasing cost of fuel and flight cancellations don’t combine to bring travel to a screeching halt, the travel and hospitality industry recovery could bring about a nice economic bounce. Add in people returning to concerts, restaurants and other forms of entertainment (provided that people to fill the necessary jobs can be found) and this major sector will be poised for recovery.
Virtual learning will become a way to replace snow days on a short term basis rather than something put in place for long term during COVID outbreaks. Similarly, mask use will eventually fade away or become a personal choice. Seems like it is for many people already, based on my observation.
Chair Powell at the Fed has already signaled that their interest rates, held at historic lows since early 2020, will rise during 2022. The trickle-through effect to the rest of the interest rate market is that both commercial and consumer borrowers will see their interest rates rise. This means that historically low mortgage rates likely will rise, including ARMs and new mortgages. This combined with the continued rise in lumber costs might lead to a slump in new home construction and purchases, not to mention the lack of labor in this sector.
Perhaps aspirational on my part, I would like to see social media return to a bit more civil set of platforms where entrepreneurs can build their businesses, families share their joy and friends reconnect after years apart. Less nastiness and sharing of differences would be a wonderful thing as we head into 2022.
FOR NEXT TIME:
As we think about “who knows?” the list could be fairly lengthy, but I will try to keep it targeted based on the topics from this time and the previous post.
IN CLOSING:
I hope all had a Happy Holiday Season, however you choose to celebrate. Stay safe, healthy and happy until next time. Looking forward to your comments and connections.
Barb's Boomer Blog 