Let’s review. I said I would wrap up 2021 with my views on what I thought would continue post-pandemic, what would come to an end and what I put in the category of “who knows?” all with the caveat of my lack of technical expertise in economics, healthcare and epidemiology. However, with 40+ years in business and higher education and a propensity for keen observation, I do have the ability to find connections that others might miss. So for what it’s worth, here goes.
A brief rundown of the “what will continue” category included:
- COVID, perhaps not as virulent, and those who resist the ways to fight it
- Shortage/burnout of healthcare workers
- Talent shortages in many sectors, but opportunities for those who seek them out
- Real estate challenges in both commercial and residential markets
- Retail, both brick-and-mortar and ecommerce, and supply chain challenges (both retail and wholesale)
- Inflation, no longer considered transitory by those in policy making roles
What will change or fade away included:
- New ways to fight COVID, perhaps both treatments and vaccinations
- More travel if the increasing cost of fuel and flight cancellations don’t combine to bring travel to a screeching halt; travel and hospitality industry recovery
- People returning to concerts, restaurants and other forms of entertainment (provided that people to fill the necessary jobs can be found)
- Virtual learning will become a thing to replace snow days on a short term basis rather than something put in place for long term during COVID outbreaks
- Mask use will eventually fade away or become a personal choice
- Interest rates, held at historic lows since early 2020, will rise during 2022
WHO KNOWS?
Now that we are a week or so into the new year, so many things could go into this category. The talking heads in the business and finance world have been fascinated with inflation at high levels, so-called “quits” at high levels as well along with continued job vacancies and employers struggling to fill them. That struggle may be one of the factors contributing to the inability of the economy to fully recover in a robust way throughout the coming year and beyond—who knows?
There are a few items that I tend to watch on the Bloomberg tracker at the bottom of the screen. Most of these I have no direct investment in—just curiosity and some knowledge of how their movement may affect the broader economy in both near and short term.
First, I watch the three main domestic stock indices, even though I know their movements don’t signify either how the broader economy may be doing or how a broader portfolio may do. Movements in the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ were quite positive in 2021, but got off to a somewhat rocky start in the first week of 2022. One week doesn’t necessarily set a trend, and so many factors will weigh in on the performance for the remainder of the year, so again—who knows?
The price of oil as a commodity is one I watch, not because I am invested there but because it will eventually be reflected in the price at the pump and other transportation costs. It recently topped $80/barrel and I recently heard some discussion of $100/barrel within the next year or two. At the risk of dating myself, I remember J.R Ewing, the evil brother on the nighttime soap Dallas, exulting when oil topped $30/barrel. Where will the price of oil, and its products go, how will that affect the rollout of non-internal combustion engine vehicles (EV and hybrid)—again, who knows?
Cyber currencies, Bitcoin et al, are fun to watch but not a sector I have come to understand. When they first appeared on the Bloomberg tracker running at the bottom of the screen, I knew they were at least approaching mainstream. Prior to their appearance, there had been a lot of discussion about regulation (quite the move from Bitcoin being a haven for drug dealers and organized crime). If memory serves, Bitcoin topped out around $65k and is now trading around $42k at this writing. A bit speculative and scary for me. A few years ago a friend said he was investing in Ethereum, a lesser known cyber currency. He bought in at $1000 and said he only invested what he knew he could afford to lose—just to see what would happen. I don’t know if he stayed the course, but it is trading quite a bit higher than that now. Even some of the larger banks and investment firms are now talking about these currencies, making trades, offering ETFs and so on. So will cyber currency continue its move toward mainstream—who knows?
We could go on in this vein for pages, but let’s stop here. We will revisit the list perhaps midyear and again at the end of the year and see what has developed.
FOR NEXT TIME:
I will be thinking about what the next round of posts might address. If you have any ideas or requests, don’t hesitate to let me know.
IN CLOSING:
Stay safe, healthy and happy until next time. Looking forward to your comments and connections.
Barb's Boomer Blog 